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DTN Midday Grain Comments     07/22 10:51

   Soybeans Down Hard Midday Thursday

   Corn is 12 to 13 cents lower, soybeans are 37 to 40 cents lower and wheat is 
9 to 25 cents lower.

David M. Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst


   The U.S. stock market is mixed with the Dow down 40 points. The U.S. Dollar 
index is 0.06 higher. Interest rate products are firmer. Energies are firmer 
with crude up $0.50. Livestock trade is mixed. Precious metals are firmer with 
gold up $2.50.


   Corn trade is 12 to 13 cents lower at midday with trade pulling back from 
the gap area overnight with fresh bullish news needed to push the market. 
Ethanol margins should stabilize with the corn pullback and energy rebound 
Thursday. Brazil will continue to evaluate the second crop as estimates drift 
lower, while the U.S. pushes deeper into pollination with a warmer and drier 
week ahead. Corn basis has remained flat with cash inverses likely to see more 
pressure as wheat and southern sorghum start to become available to feed. 
Weekly export sales were poor with -88,500 metric tons on old crop and 47,700 
of new. On the September contract, trade is testing the 20-day at $5.58 at 
midday and the top of the gap at $5.88 looms above the market.


   Soybeans are 37 to 40 cents lower at midday with trade fading as meal is 
failing to hold gains while oil fades further from the highs to spur 
liquidation, and the forecast shows potential improvement down the road. Meal 
is $7.50 to $8.50 lower and oil is 1.70 cents to 2.00 cents lower. The weather 
pattern is warmer and drier short term, with rains towards the end of the 
second week for much of the belt potentially. South America will continue to 
ship soybeans while the run in Canola values turn sharply lower. Basis levels 
have been flat to weaker in recent days. Weekly export sales were poor at 
62,000 metric tons of old crop, 176,300 of new crop; 68,300 of old meal and 
19,100 of new, with oil at 700 metric tons. On the September soybean chart 
support the 20-day at $13.58, which we are testing at midday, with $14.00 
holding this week, and the upper Bollinger Band at $14.39 the next round up.


   Wheat trade is 9 to 25 cents lower at midday with spring wheat holding up 
better as spread trade shifts direction again with Chicago the short leg 
Thursday morning. Harvest will continue to expand across Europe and the Black 
Sea with mixed results so far while the dollar will provide headwinds at the 
upper end of the range with mild weakness so far Thursday. KC holds at 38-cent 
discount to Chicago narrowing Thursday with Minneapolis at a 205-cent premium 
with a sharp swing from overnight levels. Weekly export sales were 473,200 
metric tons of old and 5,000 for the 2022-23 crop year. KC September on the 
chart has support at the 20-day at 6.28 with resistance the upper Bollinger 
Band at $6.78.

   David Fiala can be reached at 

   Follow him on Twitter @davidfiala

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