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DTN Midday Grain Comments     09/26 10:44

   Grains Lower at Midday

   Corn trade is 5 to 6 cents lower, beans are 5 to 7 cents lower and wheat is 
7 to 12 cents lower. 

David M. Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst


   The U.S. stock market is mixed with the Dow down 185 points. The dollar 
index is 45 points higher. Interest rate products are weaker. Energies are 
mixed with crude up $0.40. Livestock trade is mixed with cattle leading. 
Precious metals are mixed with gold $5.50 lower.


   Corn trade is 5 to 6 cents lower at midday with risk-off trade continuing 
with the negative outside market environment along with expanding harvest to 
open the week. Short-term forecasts have the center of the Corn Belt drier with 
warmer-than-normal temps again into the weekend, which should keep harvest 
progress around the five-year average on the weekly Crop Progress report Monday 
afternoon. Steady conditions are expected, and overall maturity is expected to 
remain slightly behind average. The export wire will need to show more life 
soon with nothing today, and weekly inspections disappointing at 459,420 metric 
tons. Ethanol margins will likely chop along with softer driving demand and 
corn values keeping pressure on for now with natural gas fading a little to add 
support. Basis will be watched to see how quickly we go to harvest footing 
everywhere, and how aggressively the west will bid for corn in the deficit 
areas into early harvest with some areas starting to show more strength. On the 
December chart, trade is just below the 20-day at $6.78 with the lower 
Bollinger Band at $6.60 as support.


   Soybean trade is 5 to 7 cents lower at midday. The trade is continuing to 
work the lower end of the range to start the week with the outside market 
pressure and expanding harvest along with OK early progress for planting in 
South America. Meal is $3.50 to $4.50 lower, and oil is 55 to 65 points lower. 
South America has early planting underway with late demand picking up ahead of 
the U.S. export window with the stronger dollar potentially pushing that 
further out with Brazil in better shape than Argentina early on. Basis will 
continue to shift toward harvest footing with trade watching to see how quickly 
export shipments pick up into the end of the month. Inspections were soft again 
at 257,547 metric tons with some further near-term basis pressure expected into 
October. The daily wire has been quiet recently. Weekly Crop Progress is 
expected to show harvest near the five-year average, with steady conditions and 
maturity just slightly behind average overall. On the November soybean chart, 
trade has the 20-day at $14.36, which we closed below Friday at resistance, 
with the lower Bollinger band at $13.76.


   Wheat trade is 7 to 12 cents lower. The trade is following the row crops 
lower with two-sided action at times today. Fresh dollar highs and little fresh 
bullish news is pulling trade further back from the highs scored last week. 
Spring wheat harvest should be effectively wrapped up on the weekly report, 
with winter wheat planting expanding with needed rains in some of the growing 
areas to keep planting and emergence near the five-year averages. MATIF wheat 
remains near the upper end of the range with some light pressure to start the 
week as well. Weekly export inspections showed some strength at 520,464 metric 
tons. The KC December chart has support at the 20-day at $9.22, and the Upper 
Bollinger band at 9.84 as resistance.

   David Fiala can be reached at 

   Follow him on Twitter @davidfiala

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